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"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated, but those who torment us for our good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their conscience."
- C. S. Lewis.
Thursday 6-06-13 D Day Anniversary
Pres Reagan at 40th Anniversary of D Day
Gentlemen, I look at you and I think of the words of Stephen Spender's poem. You are men who in your "lives fought for life...and left the vivid air signed with your honor…."
Meal : 134m old crop + 137 new crop vs 75-175 expected
Corn : 107 old + 52 new vs 500-800 expected
Beans : 48 old + 590 new vs 300-700 expected
Wheat : 33 old + 665 new vs 300-600 expected
Soy Oil : 31 old + nil new vs 30-40 expected
Crop Progress Summary 6-13-13
Weekly Export Sales -- Solid Meal, Old Crop Bean Cancellations
Meal…149m old crop + 41m new vs 100-250 expected
Corn…86 old + 790 new vs 500-800 expected
Beans…108 old + 757 new vs 300-800 expected
Wheat…36 old + 728 new vs 300-700 expected
Oil…2.9 old + nil new vs 5-10 expected
New crop corn and beans are above the YTD average. The January average was 5.86 and 12.96. Our crystal ball is underwater but making some catchup sales or protecting downside above the average should make some sense.
What we should grasp, however, from the lessons of European history is that, first, there is nothing necessarily benevolent about programmes of European integration; second, the desire to achieve grand utopian plans often poses a grave threat to freedom; and third, European unity has been tried before, and the outcome was far from happy.
~ Margaret Thatcher, Statecraft: Strategies for a Changing World (2002)
Nice rally today as the monsoon continues. Cargil moved there bid back to the August futures today. The rally brings us back above average in Dec corn and near average prices for Nov soybeans. It is time to pay attention on new crop sales. It is a critical time of year. You have to sell into fear as difficult as it is.
Forecast Turning Wetter at Midday
THE MIDDAYS CAME OUT WETTER STILL IN THE 1-5 DAY FORECAST, AS I MENTIONED, AND THE 11-15 DAY IS WETTER THAN RECENT RUNS, WHICH GAVE US A FUNDAMENTAL REASON TO RALLY CZ BACK OVER 5.60.
THE NEW CROP CORN RALLY HAS CONTINUED TO SUPPORT WHEAT, WHICH IS STILL UP 7-9 CENTS IN CHICAGO, AS WE STILL ARE WAITING FOR SOME FINISHING RAINS IN THE SW PLAINS BUT CAN’T SEEM TO GET ANYTHING THAT COULD HELP IN THE DRIEST SPOTS.
THE BEAN COMPLEX IS BOUNCING DUE TO THE RALLY IN NEW CROP CORN OR THE GRAINS IN GENERAL, BUT ONE HAS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THAT THE MORE WE TALK OR FACTOR IN FEWER CORN ACRES, WE ARE GOING TO SEE THE BULK OF THAT ACREAGE GO TO BEANS AND SO BEANS ARE UNCHANGED IN NEW CROP AND DOWN 5-6 CENTS IN JULY. ROGERS ROLL STARTS TOMORROW, AND WEEKLY EXPORT SALES ARE DELAYED DUE TO THE HOLIDAY UNTIL FRIDAY.
• Corn 86 pct planted vs. 90 ave.
• Iowa 85 pct vs. 98 ave. Illinois 89 pct vs. 89 ave.
• Soy 44 pct planted vs. 61 ave.
• Iowa and Illinois both 40 pct planted vs. 83 and 53 pct ave.
• Spring wheat 79 pct planted vs. 86 ave.
• Winter wheat rated 31 pct good equal to last week with 42 pct poor, up 1.
• Oklahoma rating down 2.
THE QUESTION IN THESE MARKETS, IN MY MIND, IS WHAT OLD CROP VALUES WILL DO, GIVEN THAT WE START THE ROGERS ROLL ON THURSDAY. IT LASTS UNTIL MONDAY, WHILE GOLDMAN STARTS ABOUT JUNE 7TH AND LASTS THROUGH JUNE 13TH, AND WE’LL BE SEEING PLENTY OF SPREADING OUT OF OC LONGS INTO NC POSITIONS, MOSTLY INTO SEPT AND NOV FOR BEANS AND SEPT AND DEC FOR CORN.
I THINK THE ONLY SAFE CONCLUSION TO MAKE IN THESE MARKETS OVERALL IS THAT NEW CROP HAS TWO REASONS, WEATHER AND SPREADING, TO GAIN BOTH FLAT PRICE AND ON A SPREAD BASIS TO NEARBY JULY.
GIVEN THAT SCENARIO, YOU LOOK TO BUY NEW CROP ON BREAKS AND SELL OLD CROP ON RALLIES.
STILL, THINK THE RAINS WILL BE OF A MUCH GREATER LONG TERM BENEFIT, BUT WE ARE GOING TO LOSE ABOUT 2 MLN ACRES OF CORN WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, AND BEANS WILL GET IN LATER THAN DESIRED, BUT MIGHT GET AS MUCH A 2 MLN MORE ACRES DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINS.
Talk of China cancelling three-bean cargos out of Brazil pressuring July beans probably did more than that.
Ultimately this is not an "export thing"...... it will be a "domestic crush" thing.
Bids for soybeans are in a bit of flux tonight as Cargil went to the Nov. It was one of the most unusual days most of us have seen in the soybean market. I was out of town this afternoon so running late this evening. FYI many quote systems have had problems the last couple of days also. This is not a tradable market for anyone involved. And it will probably get worse. Dean
- Old crop corn sales are woefully less than "needed."
- Soybean sales solid - the especially new crop
- Soybean meal sales strongly outpace "needed" levels again
- Old crop wheat exports may still fall short of projection - solid new crop sales
Soybeans are now bidding off the August (Q) Cedar made the move this am, and elevators will follow shortly. The move took about 25 cents off the nearby basis. Movement, while not heavy, has picked up, especially for the June slot. Bean supply will be tight, but not today. Traer has received 2.5 inches of rain the last few days.
From Cargill - Cedar Rapids
Dear Valued Customer,
We will begin probing back at CR East starting Wed, May 22nd. We are extending unloading hours this week from Wed (5/22nd) – Friday (5/24th) to 7a-8p.
Note: Cargil Soybean Plants and elevators are now bidding vs. the August. They have taken approx 25 cents off the basis.
Crop Planting Report
USDA Aug Beans … 42.6 BPA, production 3.255 bil
Subject: Floor Comment -- 10:20 am
LONG LIQUIDATION IN THE THINLY TRADED SEPT DELIVERY, AS SEPT BEANS ARE DOWN 25+ CENTS, SEPT MEAL IS DOWN $10+ AND SEPT CORN IS DOWN 12+ CENTS, WITH CU/CZ TRADING BELOW 15 CENTS NOW, AS CASH CORN BIDS ARE DOWN SHARPLY WITH SOME EARLY CUTTING OF SOME HIGHER MOISTURE CORN BEING DRIED DOWN TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE INVERSE, WHILE WE HEAR OF RECORD OR WELL ABOVE TRENDLINE YIELDS IN LOUISIANA, MISSOURI AND SEVERAL SOUTHERN REGIONS
THE RECENT WARMUP MAY BE HURTING IOWA AND SOME OTHER SPOTS WHEN IT COMES TO BEANS, BUT IT'S SPEEDING MATURITY, DRYING CROPS, AND ALLOWING FOR SOME EARLIER THAN EXPECTED HARVEST ALSO, AT LEAST IN CORN
NEARBY WEAKNESS IS WEIGHING ON NEW CROP MONTHS, WITH SX DOWN 4-6 CENTS, SMZ IS DOWN $2, AND CZ IS DOWN 2-3 CENTS AFTER TRADING AT SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEVELS AT ONE JUNCTURE
SEPT DELIVERY, AS SEPT BEANS ARE DOWN 25+ CENTS, SEPT MEAL IS DOWN $10+ AND SEPT CORN IS DOWN 12+ CENTS, WITH CU/CZ TRADING BELOW 15 CENTS NOW, AS CASH CORN BIDS ARE DOWN SHARPLY WITH SOME EARLY CUTTING OF SOME HIGHER MOISTURE CORN BEING DRIED DOWN TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE INVERSE, WHILE WE HEAR OF RECORD OR WELL ABOVE TRENDLINE YIELDS IN LOUISIANA, MISSOURI AND SEVERAL SOUTHERN REGIONS
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